The entrepreneurs who stuck with Silicon Valley after the pop learned four big
lessons from the dot-com crash that still guide business thinking today:
1. Make incremental advances. Grand visions inflated the bubble, so they should
not be indulged.
2. Stay lean and flexible. All companies must be “lean,” which is code for
“unplanned.” You should not know what your business will do; planning is
arrogant and inflexible. Instead you should try things out, “iterate,” and treat
entrepreneurship as agnostic experimentation.
3. Improve on the competition. Don’t try to create a new market prematurely. The
only way to know you have a real business is to start with an already existing
customer, so you should build your company by improving on recognizable
products already offered by successful competitors.
4. Focus on product, not sales. If your product requires advertising or salespeople
to sell it, it’s not good enough: technology is primarily about product
development, not distribution.
These lessons have become dogma in the startup world; those who would ignore
them are presumed to invite the justified doom visited upon technology in the great
crash of 2000. And yet the opposite principles are probably more correct:
1. It is better to risk boldness than triviality.
2. A bad plan is better than no plan.
3. Competitive markets destroy profits.
4. Sales matters just as much as product.
It’s true that there was a bubble in technology. The late ’90s was a time of hubris:
people believed in going from 0 to 1. Too few startups were actually getting there,
and many never went beyond talking about it.
We still need new technology, and we may even need some 1999-style hubris and
exuberance to get it. To build the next generation of companies, we must abandon
the dogmas created after the crash. That doesn’t mean the opposite ideas are
automatically true: you can’t escape the madness of crowds by dogmatically
rejecting them. Instead ask yourself: how much of what you know about business
is shaped by mistaken reactions to past mistakes? The most contrarian thing of all
is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.
ALL HAPPY COMPANIES ARE DIFFERENT